Prediction Markets for Paper Evaluations

Title:

Stand dieback and collapse in a temperate forest and its impact on forest structure and biodiversity

Authors:

Martin PA, Newton AC, Cantarello E, Evans P

Year:

2015

Journal:

Forest Ecology and Management

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.08.033

Abstract:

Concern is increasing about large-scale dieback that is occurring in many forest ecosystems. However, understanding of the processes of dieback and its potential impacts is limited, partly owing to the lack of long-term monitoring data for forest stands in which dieback has occurred. Here we present monitoring data collected over 50 years along two transects in a temperate forest ecosystem, in which the canopy dominant beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) has demonstrated significant dieback. Our results show that basal area in the forest has declined by 33%, and juvenile tree densities have also been reduced by approximately 70%. Growing season temperatures have steadily increased and there have been a number of droughts causing climatic water deficits in recent decades, particularly in 1995. We hypothesise that these droughts may have interacted with novel pathogenic fungi to cause mortality of large trees. Curvilinear responses to BA loss were observed in tree community change, ground flora species richness, and percentage cover of grass, providing evidence of thresholds associated with stand dieback. Evidence also suggested that BA failed to recover once it declined. Critical values of basal area for a change in ground flora species richness and grass cover were around 40% decline from initial values. While these changes are dramatic, they cannot be considered a regime shift as the pressures that may have contributed to the ecosystem transition, drought, pathogenic fungi and overgrazing, are on-going. While managers might consider accepting forest dieback as part of an adaptive response of the system to novel environmental conditions, this would likely be associated with significant change in biodiversity and ecosystem service provision.

Title:

Short-term chilled storage of zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryos in cryoprotectant as an alternative to cryopreservation

Authors:

Desai K, Spikings E, Zhang T

Year:

2015

Journal:

Zebrafish

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1089/zeb.2013.0961

Abstract:

As zebrafish embryos have never been cryopreserved, we developed a protocol to store zebrafish embryos (50% epiboly—5.3 hour post fertilization) for up to 18 h at 0°C. Initial experiments to optimize the cryoprotectant (CPA) solution demonstrated improved embryo hatching rate following chilling at 0°C for 18 h with 1 M MeOH+0.1 M sucrose (56±5%) compared with other combinations of methanol (0.2–0.5 M) and sucrose (0.05–0.1 M). This combination of CPAs that protects against chilling injury was further tested to assess its impact on sox gene and protein expression. Significant decreases in sox3 gene expression were observed in hatched embryos that had been chilled for 18 h in 1 M MeOH+0.1 sucrose compared with non-chilled controls, however the expression of both sox2 and sox3 proteins was unaffected. Significant decreases in sox2 protein expression were, however, observed in embryos that had been chilled without CPAs and these embryos also had lower hatching rates than those chilled with the optimal CPA solution. We, therefore, conclude that the CPA combination of 1 M MeOH+0.1 M sucrose facilitates chilled storage of early stage (50% epiboly) zebrafish embryos for up to 18 h without compromising transcriptional response.

Title:

Human Impacts on Forest Biodiversity in Protected Walnut-Fruit Forests in Kyrgyzstan

Authors:

Cantarello E, Lovegrove A, Orozumbekov A, Birch J, Brouwers N, Newton AC

Year:

2014

Journal:

Journal of Sustainable Forestry

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1080/10549811.2014.901918

Abstract:

We used a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics, supported by empirical field data and socioeconomic data, to examine the impacts of human disturbances on a protected forest landscape in Kyrgyzstan. Local use of 27 fruit and nut species was recorded and modeled. Results indicated that in the presence of fuelwood cutting with or without grazing, species of high socioeconomic importance such as Juglans regia, Malus spp., and Armeniaca vulgaris were largely eliminated from the landscape after 50–150 yr. In the absence of disturbance or in the presence of grazing only, decline of these species occurred at a much lower rate, owing to competitive interactions between tree species. This suggests that the current intensity of fuelwood harvesting is not sustainable. Conversely, current grazing intensities were found to have relatively little impact on forest structure and composition, and could potentially play a positive role in supporting regeneration of tree species. These results indicate that both positive and negative impacts on biodiversity can arise from human populations living within a protected area. Potentially, these could be reconciled through the development of participatory approaches to conservation management within this reserve, to ensure the maintenance of its high conservation value while meeting human needs.

Title:

Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise

Authors:

Schuerch M, Spencer T, Temmerman S, Kirwan ML, Wolff C, Lincke D, McOwen CJ, Pickering MD, Reef R, Vafeidis AT, Hinkel J, Nicholls RJ, Brown S

Year:

2018

Journal:

Nature

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0476-5

Abstract:

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services. These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological and socio-economic system feedbacks. Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies, we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.

Title:

Diversity of Diptera families that pollinate Ceropegia (Apocynaceae) trap flowers: An update in light of new data and phylogenetic analyses

Authors:

Ollerton J, Dötterl S, Ghorpadé K, Heiduk A, Liede-Schumann S, Masinde S, Meve U, Peter CI, Prieto-Benítez S, Punekar S, Thulin M, Whittington A

Year:

2017

Journal:

Flora

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.flora.2017.07.013

Abstract:

Pollination by flies (Diptera) has been important to the diversification and ecology of the flowering plants, but is poorly understood in contrast to pollination by other groups such as bees, butterflies and birds. Within the Apocynaceae the genera Ceropegia and Riocreuxia temporarily trap flies, releasing them after a fixed, species-specific period of time, during which pollination and/or pollen removal occurs. This “trap flower” pollination system shows convergent evolution with unrelated species in other families and fascinated Stefan Vogel for much of his career, leading to ground-breaking work on floral function in Ceropegia (Apocynaceae). In this new study we extend the work of the latest broad analysis published by some of the authors (Ollerton et al., 2009 − Annals of Botany). This incorporates previously unpublished data from India and Africa, as well as recently published information, on the diversity of pollinators exploited by Ceropegia. The analyses are based on a more accurate phylogenetic understanding of the relationships between the major groups, and significantly widens the biogeographic scope of our understanding of fly pollination within Ceropegia. Information about the pollinators of 69 taxa (species, subspecies and natural varieties) of Ceropegia is now available. Twenty five families of Diptera are known to visit the flowers of Ceropegia, of which sixteen are confirmed as pollinators. Most taxa are pollinated by species from a single family. Overall, there were no major biogeographic differences in the types of Diptera that were used in particular regions, though some subtle differences were apparent. Likewise there were no differences between the two major clades of Ceropegia, but clear differences when comparing the range of Diptera exploited by Ceropegia with that of the stapeliads. This clade, one of the largest in the Asclepiadoideae, is a fascinating example of a species radiation driven by an apparently relatively uniform set of pollinators.

Title:

Quantifying resilience of multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity in a temperate forest landscape

Authors:

Cantarello E, Newton AC, Martin PA, Evans PM, Gosal A, Lucash MS

Year:

2017

Journal:

Ecology and Evolution

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3491

Abstract:

Resilience is increasingly being considered as a new paradigm of forest management among scientists, practitioners, and policymakers. However, metrics of resilience to environmental change are lacking. Faced with novel disturbances, forests may be able to sustain existing ecosystem services and biodiversity by exhibiting resilience, or alternatively these attributes may undergo either a linear or nonlinear decline. Here we provide a novel quantitative approach for assessing forest resilience that focuses on three components of resilience, namely resistance, recovery, and net change, using a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. Under the pulse set scenarios, we explored the resilience of nine ecosystem services and four biodiversity measures following a one‐off disturbance applied to an increasing percentage of forest area. Under the pulse + press set scenarios, the six disturbance intensities explored during the pulse set were followed by a continuous disturbance. We detected thresholds in net change under pulse + press scenarios for the majority of the ecosystem services and biodiversity measures, which started to decline sharply when disturbance affected >40% of the landscape. Thresholds in net change were not observed under the pulse scenarios, with the exception of timber volume and ground flora species richness. Thresholds were most pronounced for aboveground biomass, timber volume with respect to the ecosystem services, and ectomycorrhizal fungi and ground flora species richness with respect to the biodiversity measures. Synthesis and applications. The approach presented here illustrates how the multidimensionality of stability research in ecology can be addressed and how forest resilience can be estimated in practice. Managers should adopt specific management actions to support each of the three components of resilience separately, as these may respond differently to disturbance. In addition, management interventions aiming to deliver resilience should incorporate an assessment of both pulse and press disturbances to ensure detection of threshold responses to disturbance, so that appropriate management interventions can be identified.

Title:

The colonization history of British water vole (Arvicola amphibius (Linnaeus, 1758)): origins and development of the Celtic fringe

Authors:

Brace S, Ruddy M, Miller R, Schreve DC, Stewart JR, Barnes I

Year:

2016

Journal:

Proceedings of the Royal Society B - Biological Sciences

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2016.0130

Abstract:

The terminal Pleistocene and Early Holocene, a period from 15 000 to 18 000 Before Present (BP), was critical in establishing the current Holarctic fauna, with temperate-climate species largely replacing cold-adapted ones at mid-latitudes. However, the timing and nature of this process remain unclear for many taxa, a point that impacts on current and future management strategies. Here, we use an ancient DNA dataset to test more directly postglacial histories of the water vole (Arvicola amphibius, formerly A. terrestris), a species that is both a conservation priority and a pest in different parts of its range. We specifically examine colonization of Britain, where a complex genetic structure can be observed today. Although we focus on population history at the limits of the species' range, the inclusion of additional European samples allows insights into European postglacial colonization events and provides a molecular perspective on water vole taxonomy.

Title:

Parasitism as a Driver of Trophic Niche Specialisation

Authors:

Britton JR, Andreou D

Year:

2016

Journal:

Trends in Parasitology

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pt.2016.02.007

Abstract:

The population trophic niche of free-living species can be subdivided into smaller niches comprising individuals specialising on specific food items. The roles of parasites in creating these specialised subgroups remain unclear. Intrapopulation differences in parasite infections can develop from specialist individuals within populations. Their differences in morphology and habitat can increase their exposure to intermediate hosts via infected prey, altering their parasite fauna. However, we also suggest that parasite infections can drive this niche specialisation. Through mechanisms including parasite manipulation, altered host phenotypes, and/ or parasite-mediated competition, parasites can alter the resource availability of their hosts, altering their trophic niches. Thus, trophic niche specialisations could result from parasitism via varying influences on host traits, raising questions for future research.

Title:

Epibenthic and mobile species colonisation of a geotextile artificial surf reef on the south coast of England

Authors:

Herbert RJH, Collins K, Mallinson J, Hall AE, Pegg J, Rosso K, Clarke L, Clements T

Year:

2017

Journal:

PLOS One

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184100

Abstract:

With increasing coastal infrastructure and use of novel materials there is a need to investigate the colonisation of assemblages associated with new structures, how these differ to natural and other artificial habitats and their potential impact on regional biodiversity. The colonisation of Europe’s first artificial surf reef (ASR) was investigated at Boscombe on the south coast of England (2009–2014) and compared with assemblages on existing natural and artificial habitats. The ASR consists of geotextile bags filled with sand located 220m offshore on a sandy sea bed at a depth of 0-5m. Successional changes in epibiota were recorded annually on differently orientated surfaces and depths using SCUBA diving and photography. Mobile faunal assemblages were sampled using Baited Remote Underwater Video (BRUV). Distinct stages in colonisation were observed, commencing with bryozoans and green algae which were replaced by red algae, hydroids and ascidians, however there were significant differences in assemblage structure with depth and orientation. The reef is being utilised by migratory, spawning and juvenile life-history stages of fish and invertebrates. The number of non-native species was larger than on natural reefs and other artificial habitats and some occupied a significant proportion of the structure. The accumulation of 180 benthic and mobile taxa, recorded to date, appears to have arisen from a locally rich and mixed pool of native and non-native species. Provided no negative invasive impacts are detected on nearby protected reefs the creation of novel yet diverse habitats may be considered a beneficial outcome.

Title:

Molecular investigation of the ciliate Spirostomum semivirescens, with first transcriptome and new geographical records

Authors:

Hines HN, Onsbring H, Ettema TJG, Esteban GF

Year:

2018

Journal:

Protist

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.protis.2018.08.001

Abstract:

The ciliate Spirostomum semivirescens is a large freshwater protist densely packed with endosymbiotic algae and capable of building a protective coating from surrounding particles. The species has been rarely recorded and it lacks any molecular investigations. We obtained such data from S. semivirescens isolated in the UK and Sweden. Using single-cell RNA sequencing of isolates from both countries, the transcriptome of S. semivirescens was generated. A phylogenetic analysis identified S. semivirescens as a close relative to S. minus. Additionally, rRNA sequence analysis of the green algal endosymbiont revealed that it is closely related to Chlorella vulgaris. Along with the molecular species identification, an analysis of the ciliates’ stop codons was carried out, which revealed a relationship where TGA stop codon frequency decreased with increasing gene expression levels. The observed codon bias suggests that S. semivirescens could be in an early stage of reassigning the TGA stop codon. Analysis of the transcriptome indicates that S. semivirescens potentially uses rhodoquinol-dependent fumarate reduction to respire in the oxygen-depleted habitats where it lives. The data also shows that despite large geographical distances (over 1,600 km) between the sampling sites investigated, a morphologically-identical species can share an exact molecular signature, suggesting that some ciliate species, even those over 1 mm in size, could have a global biogeographical distribution.

Title:

The Long Term Response of Birds to Climate Change: New Results from a Cold Stage Avifauna in Northern England

Authors:

Stewart JR, Jacobi RM

Year:

2015

Journal:

PLOS One

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122617

Abstract:

The early MIS 3 (55–40 Kyr BP associated with Middle Palaeolithic archaeology) bird remains from Pin Hole, Creswell Crags, Derbyshire, England are analysed in the context of the new dating of the site’s stratigraphy. The analysis is restricted to the material from the early MIS 3 level of the cave because the upper fauna is now known to include Holocene material as well as that from the Late Glacial. The results of the analysis confirm the presence of the taxa, possibly unexpected for a Late Pleistocene glacial deposit including records such as Alpine swift, demoiselle crane and long-legged buzzard with southern and/or eastern distributions today. These taxa are accompanied by more expected ones such as willow ptarmigan /red grouse and rock ptarmigan living today in northern and montane areas. Finally, there are temperate taxa normally requiring trees for nesting such as wood pigeon and grey heron. Therefore, the result of the analysis is that the avifauna of early MIS 3 in England included taxa whose ranges today do not overlap making it a non-analogue community similar to the many steppe-tundra mammalian faunas of the time. The inclusion of more temperate and woodland taxa is discussed in the light that parts of northern Europe may have acted as cryptic northern refugia for some such taxa during the last glacial. These records showing former ranges of taxa are considered in the light of modern phylogeographic studies as these often assume former ranges without considering the fossil record of those taxa. In addition to the anomalous combination of taxa during MIS 3 living in Derbyshire, the individuals of a number of the taxa are different in size and shape to members of the species today probably due to the high carrying capacity of the steppe-tundra.

Title:

Linking protection with the distribution of grouper and habitat quality in Seychelles

Authors:

Howlett SJ, Stafford R, Waller M, Antha S, Mason-Parker C

Year:

2016

Journal:

Journal of Marine Biology

Weblink:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7851425

Abstract:

Marine protected areas can be designated for a number of reasons, but exactly how they provide benefits is only recently being understood. We assessed the effect of protection on the size and distribution of six common species of grouper in a coral reef ecosystem. Data on live coral cover, coral genus diversity, and coral colony structure type were also compared to give an indication of reef quality between sites. A significant interaction was found for Aethaloperca rogaa and Cephalopholis nigripinnis, indicating that protected areas held greater numbers of smaller and median sized fish of these species than unprotected areas. Similar but nonsignificant trends were found for Cephalopholis miniata and Cephalopholis argus. For Anyperodon leucogrammicus, MPAs held significantly more fish than unprotected sites, but as the increase was equal between size categories there was no interaction. The last species Epinephelus fasciatus, which was one of the smallest species, had no significant interaction, similar mean counts between protected and unprotected areas, and no obvious strong favouritism for particular sites with values indicating better reef quality, indicating intraspecies competition. The results of this study indicate that while the MPAs in this study are likely too small to benefit large groupers, the improvements to habitat quality have indirect benefits to groupers, especially at their earlier life stages.

Title:

Protection of cells from salinity stress by extracellular polymeric substances in diatom biofilms

Authors:

Steele DJ, Franklin DJ, Underwood GJC

Year:

2014

Journal:

Biofouling

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1080/08927014.2014.960859

Abstract:

Diatom biofilms are abundant in the marine environment. It is assumed (but untested) that extracellular polymeric substances (EPS), produced by diatoms, enable cells to cope with fluctuating salinity. To determine the protective role of EPS, Cylindrotheca closterium was grown in xanthan gum at salinities of 35, 50, 70 and 90 ppt. A xanthan matrix significantly increased cell viability (determined by SYTOX-Green), growth rate and population density by up to 300, 2,300 and 200%, respectively. Diatoms grown in 0.75% w/v xanthan, subjected to acute salinity shock treatments (at salinities 17.5, 50, 70 and 90 ppt) maintained photosynthetic capacity, Fq′/Fm′, within 4% of pre-shock values, whereas Fq′/Fm′ in cells grown without xanthan declined by up to 64% with hypersaline shock. Biofilms that developed in xanthan at standard salinity helped cells to maintain function during salinity shock. These results provide evidence of the benefits of living in an EPS matrix for biofilm diatoms.

Title:

The consequences of reservoir host eradication on disease epidemiology in animal communities

Authors:

Al-Shorbaji F, Roche B, Gozlan R, Britton R, Andreou D

Year:

2019

Journal:

Emerging Microbes & Infections

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1038/emi.2016.46

Abstract:

Non-native species have often been linked with introduction of novel pathogens that spill over into native communities, and the amplification of the prevalence of native parasites. In the case of introduced generalist pathogens, their disease epidemiology in the extant communities remains poorly understood. Here, Sphaerothecum destruens, a generalist fungal-like fish pathogen with bi-modal transmission (direct and environmental) was used to characterise the biological drivers responsible for disease emergence in temperate fish communities. A range of biotic factors relating to both the pathogen and the surrounding host communities were used in a novel susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to test how these factors affected disease epidemiology. These included: (i) pathogen prevalence in an introduced reservoir host (Pseudorasbora parva); (ii) the impact of reservoir host eradication and its timing and (iii) the density of potential hosts in surrounding communities and their connectedness. These were modelled across 23 combinations and indicated that the spill-over of pathogen propagules via environmental transmission resulted in rapid establishment in adjacent fish communities (<1 year). Although disease dynamics were initially driven by environmental transmission in these communities, once sufficient numbers of native hosts were infected, the disease dynamics were driven by intra-species transmission. Subsequent eradication of the introduced host, irrespective of its timing (after one, two or three years), had limited impact on the long-term disease dynamics among local fish communities. These outputs reinforced the importance of rapid detection and eradication of non-native species, in particular when such species are identified as healthy reservoirs of a generalist pathogen.

Title:

Improving estimates of environmental change using multilevel regression models of Ellenberg indicator values

Authors:

Carroll T, Gillingham PK, Stafford R, Bullock JM, Diaz A

Year:

2018

Journal:

Ecology and Evolution

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4422

Abstract:

Ellenberg indicator values (EIVs) are a widely used metric in plant ecology comprising a semi‐quantitative description of species’ ecological requirements. Typically, point estimates of mean EIV scores are compared over space or time to infer differences in the environmental conditions structuring plant communities—particularly in resurvey studies where no historical environmental data are available. However, the use of point estimates as a basis for inference does not take into account variance among species EIVs within sampled plots and gives equal weighting to means calculated from plots with differing numbers of species. Traditional methods are also vulnerable to inaccurate estimates where only incomplete species lists are available.We present a set of multilevel (hierarchical) models—fitted with and without group‐level predictors (e.g., habitat type)—to improve precision and accuracy of plot mean EIV scores and to provide more reliable inference on changing environmental conditions over spatial and temporal gradients in resurvey studies. We compare multilevel model performance to GLMMs fitted to point estimates of mean EIVs. We also test the reliability of this method to improve inferences with incomplete species lists in some or all sample plots. Hierarchical modeling led to more accurate and precise estimates of plot‐level differences in mean EIV scores between time‐periods, particularly for datasets with incomplete records of species occurrence. Furthermore, hierarchical models revealed directional environmental change within ecological habitat types, which less precise estimates from GLMMs of raw mean EIVs were inadequate to detect. The ability to compute separate residual variance and adjusted R2 parameters for plot mean EIVs and temporal differences in plot mean EIVs in multilevel models also allowed us to uncover a prominent role of hydrological differences as a driver of community compositional change in our case study, which traditional use of EIVs would fail to reveal. Assessing environmental change underlying ecological communities is a vital issue in the face of accelerating anthropogenic change. We have demonstrated that multilevel modeling of EIVs allows for a nuanced estimation of such from plant assemblage data changes at local scales and beyond, leading to a better understanding of temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Further, the ability of these methods to perform well with missing data should increase the total set of historical data which can be used to this end.

Title:

Occurrence of chlorophyll allomers during virus-induced mortality and population decline in the ubiquitous picoeukaryote Ostreococcus tauri

Authors:

Steele DJ, Kimmance SA, Franklin DJ, Airs RL

Year:

2017

Journal:

Environmental microbiology

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1111/1462-2920.13980

Abstract:

During viral infection and growth limitation of the picoeukaryote Ostreococcus tauri, we examined the relationship between membrane permeability, oxidative stress and chlorophyll allomers (oxidation products). Chlorophyll allomers were measured in batch-cultures of O. tauri in parallel with maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II photochemistry (Fv/Fm), carotenoids, and reactive oxygen species and membrane permeability using fluorescent probes (CMH2DCFDA and SYTOX-Green). Viral infection led to mass cell lysis of the O. tauri cells within 48 h. The concentration of the allomer hydroxychlorophyll a peaked with a 16-fold increase (relative to chlorophyll-a) just after the major lysis event. In contrast, cell death due to growth limitation resulted in a twofold increase in allomer production, relative to chl-a. Two allomers were detected solely in association with O. tauri debris after viral lysis, and unlike other allomers were not observed before viral lysis, or during cell death due to growth limitation. Conversely, the component chl-aP276 was found in the highest concentrations relative to chla, in exponentially growing O. tauri. The components described have potential as indicators of mode of phytoplankton mortality, and of population growth.

Title:

Towards a Global Tree Assessment

Authors:

Newton A, Oldfield S, Rivers M, Mark J, Schatz G, Garavito NT, Cantarello E, Golicher D, Cayuela L, Miles L

Year:

2015

Journal:

Oryx

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1017/S0030605315000137

Abstract:

Although trees have high economic, cultural and ecological value, increasing numbers of species are potentially at risk of extinction because of forest loss and degradation as a result of human activities, including overharvesting, fire and grazing. Emerging threats include climate change and its interaction with the spread of pests and diseases. The impact of such threats on the conservation status of trees is poorly understood. Here we highlight the need to conduct a comprehensive conservation assessment of the world's tree species, building on previous assessments undertaken for the IUCN Red List. We suggest that recent developments in plant systematics, online databases, remote sensing data and associated analytical tools offer an unprecedented opportunity to conduct such an assessment. We provide an overview of how a Global Tree Assessment could be achieved in practice, through participative, open-access approaches to data sharing and evaluation.

Title:

Challenging the European southern refugium hypothesis: species specific structures vs. general patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation among small mammals

Authors:

Pedreschi D, García-Rodríguez O, Yannic G, Cantarello E, Diaz A, Golicher D, Korstjens AH, Heckel G, Searle JB, Gillingham P, Hardouin EA, Stewart JR

Year:

2018

Journal:

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12828

Abstract:

Aim: In this study, we conduct a quantitative meta‐analysis to investigate broad patterns of genetic variation throughout large geographical regions in order to elucidate concordant geographical patterns across species and identify common historical processes to better inform the “cryptic refugia” versus the traditional “southern refugia” hypothesis debate. Location: Europe. Time period: Late Pleistocene to present day. Major taxa studied: Small mammals (Rodentia, Eulipotyphla). Methods: A meta‐analysis was performed on large‐scale patterns of genetic diversity for 19 species from 59 papers. For each species, haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated using the mitochondrial D‐loop and compared to the species’ range. Results: No consistent patterns were observed between mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity indices (nucleotide and haplotype diversity) and any of the indicators of distribution examined [latitude and longitude (max, min, centre, range)]. The patterns of genetic diversity observed in all the 19 species studied appear to be species‐specific. Main conclusions: In contrast to the traditional southern refugial hypotheses, we found no evidence for a consistent south–north post‐glacial expansion. Instead individual species appear to respond to climate oscillations in niche‐specific ways. This individual nature of each species’ phylogeographical history indicates a complex web of post‐glacial recolonization dynamics across Europe.

Title:

Mate choice in sticklebacks reveals that immunogenes can drive ecological speciation

Authors:

Andreou D, Eizaguirre C, Boehm T, Milinski M

Year:

2017

Journal:

Behavioral Ecology

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1093/beheco/arx074

Abstract:

Adaptation to ecologically contrasting niches can lead to the formation of new species. Theoretically, this process of ecological speciation can be driven by pleiotropic “magic traits” that genetically link natural and sexual selection. To qualify as a true magic trait, the pleiotropic function of a gene must be reflected in biologically relevant mechanisms underlying both local adaptation and mate choice. The immune genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) contribute to parasite resistance and also play a major role in sexual selection. Hence, the MHC may encode a candidate magic trait. Using diverging 3-spined stickleback populations from a connected lake–river habitat, we show with mate choice experiments in a flow channel that polymorphic MHC genes probably underlie assortative mating with respect to particular habitat-adapted ecotypes, potentially resulting in reproductive isolation. By manipulating olfactory cues in controlled experiments, we show that female sticklebacks employ MHC-dependent male olfactory signals to select mates with which they can achieve a habitat-specific MHC gene structure that optimally protects their offspring against local parasites. By using MHC-based olfactory signals, females thus select individuals of their own population as mates. Our results demonstrate how mate choice and parasite resistance may be functionally linked. These findings suggest that MHC genes are pleiotropic and encode a true magic trait of biologically significant effect.

Title:

Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

Authors:

Brown S, Nicholls RJ, Goodwin P, Haigh ID, Lincke D, Vafeidis AT, Hinkel J

Year:

2018

Journal:

Earth's Future

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000738

Abstract:

We use multiple synthetic mitigation sea‐level scenarios, together with a non‐mitigation sea‐level scenario from the Warming Acidification and Sea‐level Projector model. We find sea‐level rise (SLR) continues to accelerate post‐2100 for all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios indicative of 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modeling framework, we project land and population exposed in the 1 in 100 year coastal flood plain under SLR and population change. In 2000, the flood plain is estimated at 540 × 103 km2. By 2100, under the mitigation scenarios, it ranges between 610 × 103 and 640 × 103 km2 (580 × 103 and 700 × 103 km2 for the 5th and 95th percentiles). Thus differences between the mitigation scenarios are small in 2100. However, in 2300, flood plains are projected to increase to between 700 × 103 and 960 × 103 km2 in 2300 (610 × 103 and 1290 × 103 km2) for the mitigation scenarios, but 1630 × 103 km2 (1190 × 103 and 2220 × 103 km2) for the non‐mitigation scenario. The proportion of global population exposed to SLR in 2300 is projected to be between 1.5% and 5.4% (1.2%–7.6%) (assuming no population growth after 2100) for the aggressive mitigation and the non‐mitigation scenario, respectively. Hence over centennial timescales there are significant benefits to climate change mitigation and temperature stabilization. However, sea‐levels will continue to rise albeit at lower rates. Thus potential impacts will keep increasing necessitating adaptation to existing coastal infrastructure and the careful planning of new coastal developments.

Title:

Palaeoproteomic evidence identifies archaic hominins associated with the Chatelperronian at the Grotte du Renne

Authors:

Welker F, Hajdinjak M, Talamo S, Jaouen K, Dannemann M, David F, Julien M, Meyer M, Kelso J, Barnes I, Brace S, Kamminga P, Fischer R, Kessler BM, Stewart JR, Paabo S, Collins MJ, Hublin J-J

Year:

2016

Journal:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1605834113

Abstract:

In Western Europe, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition is associated with the disappearance of Neandertals and the spread of anatomically modern humans (AMHs). Current chronological, behavioral, and biological models of this transitional period hinge on the Châtelperronian technocomplex. At the site of the Grotte du Renne, Arcy-sur-Cure, morphological Neandertal specimens are not directly dated but are contextually associated with the Châtelperronian, which contains bone points and beads. The association between Neandertals and this “transitional” assemblage has been controversial because of the lack either of a direct hominin radiocarbon date or of molecular confirmation of the Neandertal affiliation. Here we provide further evidence for a Neandertal–Châtelperronian association at the Grotte du Renne through biomolecular and chronological analysis. We identified 28 additional hominin specimens through zooarchaeology by mass spectrometry (ZooMS) screening of morphologically uninformative bone specimens from Châtelperronian layers at the Grotte du Renne. Next, we obtain an ancient hominin bone proteome through liquid chromatography-MS/MS analysis and error-tolerant amino acid sequence analysis. Analysis of this palaeoproteome allows us to provide phylogenetic and physiological information on these ancient hominin specimens. We distinguish Late Pleistocene clades within the genus Homo based on ancient protein evidence through the identification of an archaic-derived amino acid sequence for the collagen type X, alpha-1 (COL10α1) protein. We support this by obtaining ancient mtDNA sequences, which indicate a Neandertal ancestry for these specimens. Direct accelerator mass spectometry radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modeling confirm that the hominin specimens date to the Châtelperronian at the Grotte du Renne.

Title:

Palaeoecological and genetic evidence for Neanderthal power locomotion as an adaptation to a woodland environment

Authors:

Stewart J, García-Rodríguez O, Knul M, Sewell L, Montgomery H, Thomas MG, Diekmann Y

Year:

2019

Journal:

Quaternary Science Reviews

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.12.023

Abstract:

The prevailing explanation for Neanderthal body form is the cold (glacial) adaptation hypothesis. However, palaeoecological associations appear to indicate a less cold woodland environment. Under such conditions, encounter and ambush (rather than pursuit) hunting – and thus muscular power and sprint (rather than endurance) capacity – would have been favoured. We hypothesise that the highly muscular Neanderthal body form reflects an adaptation to hunting conditions rather than cold, and here both review the palaeoecological evidence that they inhabited a mainly woodland environment, and present preliminary genetic analyses in support of this new hypothesis.

Title:

Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise

Authors:

Reimann L, Vafeidis AT, Brown S, Hinkel J, Tol RSJ

Year:

2018

Journal:

Nature Communications

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06645-9

Abstract:

UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.

Title:

Simultaneous uptake of Cd from sediment, water and diet in a demersal marine goby Mugilogobius chulae

Authors:

Guo Z, Ni Z, Ye H, Xiao J, Chen L, Green I, Zhang L

Year:

2019

Journal:

Journal of Hazardous Materials

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2018.09.045

Abstract:

The embryonic state of our knowledge regarding the simultaneous uptake of trace metals via multiple routes in aquatic organisms makes it difficult to accurately assess the bioaccumulation and risk of metals. This study used cadmium (Cd) and a demersal marine fish (the yellowstripe goby) as a model system to determine tissue-specific uptake of Cd under conditions of simultaneous exposure to Cd from water, sediment and diet. A triple stable isotope tracing method was used in which each exposure route was spiked by a different stable isotope (110Cd, 111Cd and 113Cd). The results revealed that the fish took up waterborne and sedimentary Cd via gills and gastrointestinal tract (GT), and that of dietary Cd was via the GT. The gills absorbed Cd predominantly from water (77.2–89.4%) whilst the GT absorbed Cd mainly from diet (81.3–98.7%). In the muscle and carcass, the Cd uptake was mainly from the diet (47.1–80.4%) and water (22.8–51.6%). Our study demonstrated that when aquatic animals were subject to simultaneous exposure through multiple uptake routes, the uptake and relative importance of each route for metal accumulation was highly tissue-specific and more complex than a single route of metal exposure.

Title:

Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Authors:

Roy H, Peyton J, Aldridge D, Bantock T, Blackburn T, Britton R, Clark P, Cook E, Dehnen‐Schmutz K, Dines T, Dobson M, Edwards F, Harrower C, Harvey MC, Minchin D, Noble DG, Parrott D, Pocock MJO, Preston CD, Roy S, Salisbury A, Schönrogge K, Sewell J, Shaw RH, Stebbing P, Stewart AJA, Walker KJ

Year:

2014

Journal:

Global Change Biology

Weblink:

https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12603

Abstract:

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases: (i) Preliminary consultation with experts within five groups (plants, terrestrial invertebrates, freshwater invertebrates, vertebrates and marine species) to derive ranked lists of potential IAS. (ii) Consensus‐building across expert groups to compile and rank the entire list of potential IAS. Five hundred and ninety‐one species not native to Great Britain were considered. Ninety‐three of these species were agreed to constitute at least a medium risk (based on score and consensus) with respect to them arriving, establishing and posing a threat to native biodiversity. The quagga mussel, Dreissena rostriformis bugensis, received maximum scores for risk of arrival, establishment and impact; following discussions the unanimous consensus was to rank it in the top position. A further 29 species were considered to constitute a high risk and were grouped according to their ranked risk. The remaining 63 species were considered as medium risk, and included in an unranked long list. The information collated through this novel extension of the consensus method for horizon scanning provides evidence for underpinning and prioritizing management both for the species and, perhaps more importantly, their pathways of arrival. Although our study focused on Great Britain, we suggest that the methods adopted are applicable globally.